Researchers have analysed 73 wildfire studies. They compared them to the statement: “Climate change increases the risk of wildfires”.
Select the icons to find out more about each study.
Data source: Science Brief
“This study of the fire weather index determined when anthropogenic climate change could/will first be detected outside the range of natural variability. The anthropogenic climate change signal emerged for 22% of burnable land area by 2019, most notably in the Amazon, Mediterranean and Southern Africa. By mid 21st Century, emergence was detected in projections of 33-62% of burnable lands. The area of emergence at 2C is half that at 3C above pre-industrial levels.”
Abatzoglou, J. T. et al. (2019), Geophysical Research Letters
“This paper projects that, in the future, more extreme fire danger will occur over larger areas of the planet, for more extended periods.”
Burton, C. et al. (2018), Geophysical Research Letters
“This paper presents a systematic analysis of the causes of extreme events around the world in 2015. It shows that human-induced climate change has increased the likelihood of a fire season such as the one observed in Alaska in 2015.”
Kam, J. et al. (2016), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
“No top interpretation”
Marlon, J. R. et al. (2013), Quaternary Science Reviews
“This study investigated the impact on fire occurrence rate between 2000-2050, due to: climate change (temperature, precipitation, humidity); lightning activity; vegetation density (CO2 fertilisation, anthropogenic land use and land cover); and anthropogenic population density (ignitions & suppression). \nSome significant regional variations were identified and explained, with fire occurrence increasing in most regions except southeast Africa, due to population density increase.”
Huang, Y. et al., (2015), Atmospheric Environment
“An ensemble of Earth system models, coupled with various scenarios of population density change, is used to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of humans on burned area. The models indicate an increase in maximum annual fire danger from 1971-2000 to 2071-2100 according to the Nesterov Index, which incorporates temperature and days since precipitation. Climate drivers alone contribute to an increase in burned area, while humans suppress fires globally but with notable regional variability.”
Knorr, W. et al. (2016), Nature Climate Change
“This article reports on the suppression of burned area by humans, by around 25% at the global scale over the past two decades. Regionally diverse trends are observed, however the suppression of fires in savannahs dominates the global trend due to their significant contribution to global burned area. Burned area trended upwards in forested regions, notably in the boreal zone. The results indicate that direct human suppression of fire countered the effects of climate change on burned area.”
Andela, N. et al. (2017), Science
“This paper uses a model to look at how the area of fire burned has been affected by deforestation. It shows that land management can offset the effects of climate change on area burnt, resulting in less area burnt since the 1930s.”
Arora, V. K. & Melton, J. R. (2018), Nature Communications
“Fire weather index (FWI) was modelled globally for 1981–2000 using 7 Earth System Models and two climate scenarios. Observed fire patterns suggest that burned area is sensitive to change in FWI below ~17, but insensitive to changes in FWI above this threshold. Hence boreal forests and tropical forests are identified as sensitive to changes in temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed. Increases in burned area are modelled in these sensitive biomes for the period 2026–2045.”
Bedia, J. et al. (2015), Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
“This study helps to explain the decrease in burned area from 1996 and 2015, as measured by satellites. Model simulations show that recent increases in temperature promote burned area but this effect is offset by increasing wetness or increases in population. Increased vegetation cover and density lead to increased burned area in fuel-limited regions. Global and regional burned area trends result from the interaction of compensating trends in controls of wildfire at regional scales.”
Forkel, M. et al. (2019), Environmental Research Communications
“This paper used sedimentary charcoal records to extend observations of biomass burnt through the last millennium. A correlation was established between biomass burnt and temperature, enabling pre-industrial sedimentary charcoal records to act as proxy for temperature, when a suitably global and well sampled database is utilised. The sedimentary charcoal record enabled prediction of a strong contribution from fire emissions to the climate-carbon cycle feedback.”
Harrison, S. P. et al. (2018), Earth System Dynamics
“This study of climate observations and fire metrics demonstrated an increase in global mean fire weather season length of 18.7%, 1979-2013, as well as a doubling of global burnable area affected by increased fire season length. These increased climatic risks could result in greater frequency or intensity of fires, depending on fuel loads and ignition sources.”
Jolly, W. M. et al. (2015), Nature Communications
“No top interpretation”
Marlon, J. R. et al. (2016), Biogeosciences
“This paper reviews the evidence for compound events (floods, wildfires, heatwaves and droughts) and argues that we should be looking at extreme events through their effects on multiple impacts.”
Zscheischler, J. et al. (2018), Nature Climate Change
“No top interpretation”
Archibald, S. et al. (2013) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
“No top interpretation”
Giglio, L. et al. (2013), Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
“No top interpretation”
Brücher, T. et al. (2014), Climate of the Past
“This paper shows that, at the global scale burnt area: increases with maximum monthly temperature; increases with diurnal range (related to humidity); increases with the number of days without rainfall; increases with net primary production (NPP) because higher NPP means there is more fuel to burn; and decreases with cropland area and human population density.”
Bistinas, I. et al. (2014), Biogeosciences
“This article offers a 'reality check' on trends in the global frequency, extent and severity of wildfire in the observational record, while noting that climate change has considerable potential to influence fire risk and that humans must learn to co-exist sustainably with fire. Satellite and inventory-based records point towards reductions in fire activity are observed identified at the global scale and in some regions, consistent with human suppression of wildfire risk.”
Doerr, S. H & Santín, C. (2016), Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B
“This paper shows that we expect more fires in a warmer climate. They used climate models to projects how climate change affects wildfires, and show that significant increases in future wildfires in many parts of the world. This includes increases in area burnt and in the number of fires.”
Flannigan, M., Cantin, A. S. et al. (2013), Forest Ecology and Management